Handful of Copper Bolts
Trade Goods · Parts · item 4359 · vendor 12c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 46 | 83% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| floor to +10% | 15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 37 sales out of 61 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 16c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 2s 28c | 94% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +0% 2s 40c | 63% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% |
| +5% 2s 52c | 31% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| +10% 2s 64c | 14% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +20% 2s 88c | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +30% 3s 12c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 3s 60c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 9.69: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 28 postings (HHI 0.101, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 43% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Copper BarUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Lovingly Crafted Boomstick Engineering |
2 | 34s 43c |
| Deadly Blunderbuss Engineering |
4 | 4s 95c |
| Reagent Bot Engineering | 1 | −77c |
 Copper Modulator Engineering |
2 | −96c |
 Mechanical Squirrel Engineering |
1 | −2s 89c |
 Rough Copper Bomb Engineering |
1 | −3s 86c |
 Crude Scope Engineering |
1 | −4s 46c |
 Rough Boomstick Engineering |
1 | −5s 14c |
 Practice Lock Engineering |
2 | −6s 75c |
 Target Dummy Engineering |
2 | −7s 38c |
| SAF-T Copper Bomb Engineering | 1 | −1g 76s |
| Satchel of Copper Bombs Engineering | 4 | – |
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