FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Rough Boomstick

Weapon · Gun · item 4362 · vendor 1s 87c

own demand model

Floor2s 80ccheapest 2s 80c

Median3s 50cby quantity

Listed7777 listings

Sold / day16avg of last 2 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	115	24%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+10% to +30%	5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 30 sales out of 121 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 2s 52c	21%	22%	22%	22%	22%
−5% 2s 66c	22%	23%	23%	23%	23%
+0% 2s 80c	23%	24%	24%	24%	24%
+5% 2s 94c	24%	25%	25%	25%	25%
+10% 3s 8c	24%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+20% 3s 36c	26%	28%	28%	28%	28%
+30% 3s 64c	28%	30%	30%	30%	30%
+50% 4s 20c	31%	33%	33%	33%	33%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 0.89 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.09. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at7seach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 28c

Chance it sells47%~6.94h on the AH

Expected value4s 19c2s 32c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.13, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 82% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	3s 50c	4s 50c	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Engineering: 1× Copper Tube 3s 10c, 1× Handful of Copper Bolts 2s 39c, 1× Wooden Stock 3s 50c

Materials 8s 99c → sells for 2s 66c: −6s 33c per craft