Copper Tube
Trade Goods · Parts · item 4361 · vendor 1s 20c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 65 | 37% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 36 sales out of 70 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 2s 81c | 96% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 2s 96c | 66% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| +0% 3s 12c | 32% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +5% 3s 28c | 14% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| +10% 3s 43c | 6% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +20% 3s 74c | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +30% 4s 6c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 4s 68c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 30.95: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 10% of listed quantity across 28 postings (HHI 0.064, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 20% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Engineering: 2× 
Copper Bar 2s, 1× 
Weak Flux 98c
Materials 4s 98c → sells for 2s 96c: −2s 2c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Deadly Blunderbuss Engineering |
2 | 4s 83c |
 Reagent Bot Engineering |
1 | −80c |
 Crude Scope Engineering |
1 | −4s 49c |
 Rough Boomstick Engineering |
1 | −5s 37c |
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