Copper Bar
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 2840 · vendor 10c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 187 | 20% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| floor to +10% | 13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| over +30% | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 28 sales out of 208 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 80c | 22% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| −5% 1s 90c | 8% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| +0% 2s | 3% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| +5% 2s 10c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +10% 2s 20c | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +20% 2s 40c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +30% 2s 60c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 3s | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 4.91: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 12% of listed quantity across 56 postings (HHI 0.059, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 31% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Copper OreUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Cloudy Skyforged Chain Blacksmithing | 6 | 1g 29s |
| Azure Skyforged Chain Blacksmithing | 6 | 1g 29s |
| Cloudy Skyforged Greaves Blacksmithing | 7 | 1g 27s |
| Cloudy Skyforged Chainmail Blacksmithing | 8 | 1g 25s |
| Azure Skyforged Chainmail Blacksmithing | 8 | 1g 25s |
| Cloudy Skyforged Legguards Blacksmithing | 8 | 1g 24s |
| Azure Skyforged Legguards Blacksmithing | 8 | 1g 24s |
| Azure Skyforged Wristguards Blacksmithing | 5 | 1g 14s |
| Cloudy Skyforged Wristguards Blacksmithing | 5 | 1g 13s |
| Azure Skyforged Gauntlets Blacksmithing | 7 | 81s |
| Cloudy Skyforged Gauntlets Blacksmithing | 7 | 71s 50c |
| Azure Skyforged Greaves Blacksmithing | 7 | 71s 50c |
 Ironforge Breastplate Blacksmithing |
16 | 54s 64c |
| Sterling Silver Gauntlet Blacksmithing | 2 | 22s 80c |
 Copper Battle Axe Blacksmithing |
12 | 10s 7c |
| Rough Copper Chain Boots Blacksmithing | 9 | 7s 64c |
 Crafted Heavy Shot Engineering |
1 | 1s 41c |
 Heavy Copper Maul Blacksmithing |
12 | 1s 4c |
 Copper Claymore Blacksmithing |
10 | 98c |
 Smelt Bronze Mining |
1 | 42c |
 Handful of Copper Bolts Engineering |
1 | 28c |
| Sharpening Wheel Blacksmithing | 1 | 28c |
| Lodestone Mining | 1 | −18c |
| Crafted Light Shot Engineering |
1 | −27c |
 Copper Modulator Engineering |
1 | −96c |
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