Goldthorn
Trade Goods · Herb · item 3821 · vendor 1s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 501 | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| floor to +10% | 126 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +10% to +30% | 14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 200 sales out of 645 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3s 59c | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| −5% 3s 79c | 57% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +0% 3s 99c | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
| +5% 4s 19c | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +10% 4s 39c | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +20% 4s 79c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 5s 19c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 5s 98c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 2.91: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 14% of listed quantity across 65 postings (HHI 0.051, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 21% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 21:49 | 3s 99c | 7s 59c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Elixir of Strength Alchemy |
1 | 49s 64c |
 Potion of Predatory Senses Alchemy |
2 | 28s 93c |
 Goldthorn Tea Cooking |
1 | 4s 28c |
 Elixir of Fortitude Alchemy |
4 | 1s 79c |
 Greater Mana Potion Alchemy |
1 | 1s 55c |
 Elixir of Agility Alchemy |
1 | 57c |
 Catseye Draught Alchemy |
1 | 16c |
 Elixir of Lesser Fortitude Alchemy |
1 | −48c |
 Frost Protection Potion Alchemy |
1 | −69c |
 Elixir of Defense Alchemy |
1 | −93c |
 Lesser Stoneshield Potion Alchemy |
1 | −4s 79c |
 Arcane Elixir Alchemy |
1 | −5s 32c |
 Elixir of Greater Agility Alchemy |
1 | −5s 39c |
 Oil of Immolation Alchemy |
1 | −5s 73c |
 Restorative Potion Alchemy |
1 | – |
 Lesser Arcane Elixir Alchemy |
1 | – |
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