FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Elixir of Lesser Fortitude

Consumable · Elixirs · item 3825 · vendor 1s 10c

no demand model yet

Floor5s 50ccheapest 5s 50c

Median6s 17cby quantity

Listed44855 listings

Sold / day222avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	39	48%	48%	48%	48%	48%
floor to +10%	9	22%	44%	44%	44%	44%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 9 sales out of 48 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Needs tracked sales to fit a model.

Best posting price

Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 15% of listed quantity across 17 postings (HHI 0.094, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Alchemy: 1× Wild Steelbloom 99c, 1× Goldthorn 4s 8c, 1× Leaded Vial 50c

Materials 5s 57c → sells for 5s 22c: −35c per craft