Greater Mana Potion
Consumable · Potions · item 6149 · vendor 1s 20c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 25 | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
| floor to +10% | 46 | 75% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +10% to +30% | 21 | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| over +30% | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 51 sales out of 97 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 5s 72c | 83% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 6s 3c | 79% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| +0% 6s 35c | 75% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| +5% 6s 67c | 70% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +10% 6s 98c | 66% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| +20% 7s 62c | 59% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| +30% 8s 26c | 52% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| +50% 9s 52c | 40% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.41 ± 2.08: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.80. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 20% of listed quantity across 17 postings (HHI 0.13, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 58% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 5s 35c | 7s | 4 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 6s 44c | 25g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 5s 38c | 25g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 5s 38c | 25g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 5s 37c | 25g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 5s 35c | 25g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 5s 35c | 25g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 18:49 | 5s 35c | 25g | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 3s 99c | 5s 30c | 12 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 3s 99c | 5s 30c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 1× 
Khadgar's Whisker 2s 85c, 1× 
Goldthorn 4s 10c, 1× 
Leaded Vial 49c
Materials 7s 44c → sells for 6s 3c: −1s 41c per craft
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