Solid Blasting Powder
Trade Goods · Parts · item 10505 · vendor 2s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 98 | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| floor to +10% | 60 | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 29% |
| +10% to +30% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 31 sales out of 165 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3s 80c | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| −5% 4s 1c | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| +0% 4s 22c | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +5% 4s 43c | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +10% 4s 64c | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| +20% 5s 6c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +30% 5s 49c | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +50% 6s 33c | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.81 ± 3.15: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.77. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 15% of listed quantity across 22 postings (HHI 0.084, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 68% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Solid StoneUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Parachute Cloak Engineering |
4 | 50s 30c |
 Gnomish Net-o-Matic Projector Engineering |
2 | 14s 30c |
 Goblin Sapper Charge Engineering |
3 | 5s 59c |
 Mechanical Repair Kit Engineering |
1 | 4s 79c |
 Solid Dynamite Engineering |
1 | 3s 21c |
 Unstable Trigger Engineering |
1 | 2s 85c |
 Large Seaforium Charge Engineering |
2 | −13c |
 EZ-Thro Dynamite II Engineering |
1 | −50c |
 Mithril Gyro-Shot Engineering |
2 | −1s 80c |
 Goblin Mortar Engineering |
5 | −2s 24c |
| Hi-Impact Mithril Slugs Engineering |
1 | −4s 70c |
 Mithril Frag Bomb Engineering |
1 | −24s 93c |
| The Mortar: Reloaded Engineering |
3 | −31s 69c |
 Hi-Explosive Bomb Engineering |
2 | −62s 35c |
 Gnomish Rocket Boots Engineering |
8 | −1g 12s |
 Explosive Arrow Engineering |
2 | – |
 Goblin "Boom" Box Engineering |
2 | – |
 Goblin Bomb Dispenser Engineering |
4 | – |
 Blue Rocket Cluster Engineering |
1 | – |
 Green Rocket Cluster Engineering |
1 | – |
 Red Rocket Cluster Engineering |
1 | – |
| Ez-Thro Radiation Bomb Engineering | 2 | – |
| High-Yield Radiation Bomb Engineering | 1 | – |
| Tru-Trigger Frag Bomb Engineering |
1 | – |
 Purple Rocket Cluster Engineering |
1 | – |
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