FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Hi-Impact Mithril Slugs

Projectile · Bullet · item 10512 · vendor 2c

own demand model

Floor5ccheapest 5c

Median6cby quantity

Listed55,96365 listings

Sold / day39,042avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	86	35%	53%	53%	53%	53%
+10% to +30%	12	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 40 sales out of 99 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 4c	85%	96%	96%	96%	96%
−5% 5c	85%	95%	95%	95%	95%
+0% 5c	84%	95%	95%	95%	95%
+5% 5c	83%	95%	95%	95%	95%
+10% 6c	82%	94%	94%	94%	94%
+20% 6c	81%	94%	94%	94%	94%
+30% 6c	80%	93%	93%	93%	93%
+50% 8c	78%	91%	91%	91%	91%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -0.50 ± 0.98: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.95. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at11ceach · +120% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells86%~2.92h on the AH

Expected value10c8c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 31% of listed quantity across 12 postings (HHI 0.191, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 50% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	3c	6c	800
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	3c	6c	1400

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Engineering: 1× Mithril Bar 9s 99c, 1× Solid Blasting Powder 4s 21c

Materials 14s 20c → sells for 9s 50c: −4s 70c per craft