Mithril Bar
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 3860 · vendor 4s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 344 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| floor to +10% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 28 sales out of 355 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 9s 34c | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| −5% 9s 86c | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| +0% 10s 38c | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| +5% 10s 90c | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| +10% 11s 42c | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +20% 12s 46c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 13s 49c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 15s 57c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -12.75 ± 7.35: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.30. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 10% of listed quantity across 54 postings (HHI 0.049, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 13% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 10s 73c | 14s 49c | 11 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Mithril OreUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Phantom Blade Blacksmithing |
28 | 18g 76s |
 The Shatterer Blacksmithing |
24 | 14g 2s |
 Deepdive Helmet Engineering |
8 | 13g 62s |
 Blight Blacksmithing |
28 | 10g 59s |
 Truesilver Breastplate Blacksmithing |
12 | 9g 19s |
| Goblin Rocket Helmet Engineering |
4 | 6g 10s |
 Shining Mithril Breastplate Blacksmithing |
8 | 5g 79s |
 Dimensional Ripper - Everlook Engineering |
10 | 5g 29s |
 Truesilver Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
10 | 3g 29s |
 Ornate Mithril Breastplate Blacksmithing |
16 | 2g 60s |
 Shining Mithril Pants Blacksmithing |
6 | 2g 55s |
 Shining Mithril Boots Blacksmithing |
4 | 2g 40s |
 Ebon Shiv Blacksmithing |
12 | 2g 17s |
 Ornate Mithril Shoulders Blacksmithing |
12 | 2g 2s |
| Gnomish Mind Control Cap Engineering |
10 | 1g 97s |
 Ornate Mithril Helm Blacksmithing |
16 | 1g 27s |
 Ornate Mithril Gloves Blacksmithing |
10 | 1g 25s |
 Shining Mithril Pauldrons Blacksmithing |
6 | 1g 16s |
 Ornate Mithril Pants Blacksmithing |
12 | 1g 13s |
 Inlaid Mithril Cylinder Blacksmithing |
5 | 42s 99c |
 Mithril Claws Blacksmithing |
8 | 31s 82c |
 Ornate Mithril Boots Blacksmithing |
14 | 24s 72c |
 Big Black Mace Blacksmithing |
16 | 17s 85c |
 Gnomish Net-o-Matic Projector Engineering |
4 | 16s 24c |
| Mithril Tube Engineering |
3 | 15s 40c |
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