Mithril Gyro-Shot
Projectile · Bullet · item 10513 · vendor 5c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 96 | 29% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 28 sales out of 96 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 13c | 52% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| −5% 13c | 39% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| +0% 14c | 28% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| +5% 15c | 20% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| +10% 15c | 14% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +20% 17c | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +30% 18c | 4% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| +50% 21c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -7.75 ± 2.25: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.48. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 31% of listed quantity across 9 postings (HHI 0.186, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 65% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Engineering: 2× 
Mithril Bar 9s 99c, 2× 
Solid Blasting Powder 4s 21c
Materials 28s 40c → sells for 26s 60c: −1s 80c per craft
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