Unstable Trigger
Trade Goods · Parts · item 10560 · vendor 10s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 93 | 23% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
| floor to +10% | 8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 27 sales out of 101 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 20s 84c | 42% | 76% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
| −5% 22s | 33% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| +0% 23s 16c | 26% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| +5% 24s 32c | 20% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| +10% 25s 48c | 16% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| +20% 27s 79c | 10% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| +30% 30s 11c | 6% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| +50% 34s 74c | 3% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.84 ± 10.69: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.57. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 25% of listed quantity across 12 postings (HHI 0.152, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 25% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Engineering: 1× 
Mithril Bar 9s 98c, 1× 
Mageweave Cloth 4s 95c, 1× 
Solid Blasting Powder 4s 22c
Materials 19s 15c → sells for 22s: 2s 85c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Goblin Rocket Helmet Engineering |
1 | 6g 2s |
 Goblin Rocket Boots Engineering |
1 | 83s 23c |
 Salt Shaker Engineering |
4 | 77s 4c |
 The Big One Engineering |
1 | 58s 27c |
 Parachute Cloak Engineering |
1 | 50s 30c |
 Mithril Heavy-bore Rifle Engineering |
1 | 7s 34c |
 Goblin Sapper Charge Engineering |
1 | 5s 59c |
 Gnomish Shrink Ray Engineering |
1 | −20s 32c |
 Gnomish Harm Prevention Belt Engineering |
1 | −23s 37c |
 Mithril Frag Bomb Engineering |
1 | −24s 93c |
 Hi-Explosive Bomb Engineering |
1 | −62s 35c |
| Mithril Blunderbuss Engineering |
1 | −76s 48c |
 Goblin Radio Engineering |
1 | – |
 Goblin Bomb Dispenser Engineering |
1 | – |
 Gnomish Death Ray Engineering |
1 | – |
 Mobile Alarm Engineering |
1 | – |
| Gnomish Ham Radio Engineering |
1 | – |
 Goblin Dragon Gun Engineering |
1 | – |
 World Enlarger Engineering |
1 | – |
 Firework Launcher Engineering |
2 | – |
 Tinkerbox: Teleport Engineering |
1 | – |
 Tinkerbox: Nitro Boosts Engineering |
1 | – |
 Tinkerbox: Magnetic Displacement Engineering |
1 | – |
 Semisafe Transporter: New Avalon Engineering |
1 | – |
 Pop-Up Shrub Engineering |
1 | – |
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