Heavy Blasting Powder
Trade Goods · Parts · item 4377 · vendor 1s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 119 | 49% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 53% |
| floor to +10% | 13 | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 53 sales out of 136 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 3s 74c | 98% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| −5% 3s 94c | 74% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% |
| +0% 4s 15c | 40% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| +5% 4s 36c | 18% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
| +10% 4s 57c | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| +20% 4s 98c | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +30% 5s 40c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 6s 22c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -19.15 ± 7.91: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.16. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 34 postings (HHI 0.104, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 44% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Heavy StoneUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 EZ-Thro Bronze Mortar Engineering |
4 | 86s 6c |
 Flash Bomb Engineering |
1 | 43s 48c |
 EZ-Thro Grenade Engineering |
1 | 40s 91c |
 SAF-T Bomb Engineering |
3 | 36s 14c |
 Green Firework Engineering |
1 | 2s 43c |
 Goblin Land Mine Engineering |
3 | 2s 5c |
 Crafted Solid Shot Engineering |
1 | 1s 61c |
| Heavy Dynamite Engineering |
2 | −1s 51c |
 Red Firework Engineering |
1 | −3s 27c |
 Iron Grenade Engineering |
1 | −3s 84c |
| Big Iron Bomb Engineering |
3 | −4s |
 Explosive Sheep Engineering |
2 | −9s 32c |
 Big Bronze Bomb Engineering |
2 | −9s 34c |
| Portable Bronze Mortar Engineering |
4 | −27s 69c |
 Blue Firework Engineering |
1 | – |
 Large Blue Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Large Green Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Large Red Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
| SAF-T Jumbo Dynamite Engineering |
2 | – |
 Shafety Sheep Engineering |
2 | – |
 Large Purple Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Large White Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Large Yellow Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
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