FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Iron Grenade

Consumable · Explosives · item 4390 · vendor 1s 25c

own demand model

Floor3s 20ccheapest 3s 18c

Median3s 49cby quantity

Listed4,281192 listings

Sold / day834avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorover +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	212	16%	32%	32%	32%	32%
over +30%	49	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 36 sales out of 265 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 2s 88c	26%	46%	46%	46%	46%
−5% 3s 4c	24%	44%	44%	44%	44%
+0% 3s 20c	23%	42%	42%	42%	42%
+5% 3s 36c	22%	40%	40%	40%	40%
+10% 3s 52c	21%	38%	38%	38%	38%
+20% 3s 84c	19%	36%	36%	36%	36%
+30% 4s 16c	18%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+50% 4s 80c	16%	29%	29%	29%	29%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.09 ± 0.42: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.90. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at7s 85ceach · +145% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 18c

Chance it sells18%~10.12h on the AH

Expected value3s 38c2s 13c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 11% of listed quantity across 32 postings (HHI 0.067, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 64% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	3s 39c	6s 20c	10
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	3s 39c	5s 20c	10
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	3s 39c	5s 20c	10
Sat 14 Nov 20:49	3s 39c	6s 20c	10
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	2s 50c	5s 15c	10
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	2s 30c	5s 15c	10
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	2s 30c	5s 15c	10
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	2s 30c	5s 15c	10
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	2s 30c	5s 15c	10
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	2s 30c	5s 15c	10

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Engineering: 1× Iron Bar 2s 56c, 1× Heavy Blasting Powder 4s 15c, 1× Silk Cloth 1s 99c

Materials 8s 70c → sells for 3s 4c: −5s 66c per craft