FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Crafted Solid Shot

Projectile · Bullet · item 8069

no demand model yet

Floor4ccheapest 4c

Median5cby quantity

Listed115,90148 listings

Sold / day36,927avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	41	8%	39%	39%	39%	39%
+10% to +30%	23	0%	26%	26%	26%	26%
over +30%	7	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 13 sales out of 71 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Needs tracked sales to fit a model.

Best posting price

Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 42% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.276, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4c	5c	200
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4c	5c	200
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4c	5c	200
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4c	5c	200
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4c	5c	200
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4c	5c	200
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4c	5c	200
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	4c	50c	200

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Engineering: 1× Heavy Blasting Powder 4s 15c, 1× Bronze Bar 1s 84c

Materials 5s 99c → sells for 7s 60c: 1s 61c per craft