Bolt of Mageweave
Trade Goods · Cloth · item 4339 · vendor 12s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 8 | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| floor to +10% | 131 | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| over +30% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 28 sales out of 146 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 23s 82c | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% |
| −5% 25s 15c | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| +0% 26s 47c | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| +5% 27s 79c | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| +10% 29s 12c | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +20% 31s 76c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 34s 41c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 39s 70c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 6.04: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 19% of listed quantity across 17 postings (HHI 0.121, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 21% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 26s 49c | 45s 80c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 26s 36c | 45s 80c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 25s 25c | 45s 80c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 26s 89c | 45s 85c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 26s 90c | 45s 85c | 17 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 26s 89c | 45s 85c | 17 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Tailoring: 5× 
Mageweave Cloth 5s 3c
Materials 25s 15c → sells for 25s 14c: −1c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Icy Cloak Tailoring |
3 | 2g 54s |
 Shadoweave Gloves Tailoring |
5 | 2g 43s |
 Shadoweave Shoulders Tailoring |
5 | 1g 60s |
 Stormcloth Gloves Tailoring |
3 | 1g 49s |
 Dreamweave Circlet Tailoring |
8 | 1g 22s |
 Tuxedo Jacket Tailoring |
5 | 1g 18s |
 Dreamweave Gloves Tailoring |
4 | 1g 18s |
| Stormcloth Shoulders Tailoring |
5 | 1g 6s |
 Shadoweave Pants Tailoring |
3 | 90s 94c |
 Shadoweave Robe Tailoring |
3 | 90s 13c |
 Star Belt Tailoring |
4 | 74s 63c |
 Admiral's Hat Tailoring |
3 | 74s 6c |
 Tuxedo Shirt Tailoring |
4 | 72s 18c |
 Shadoweave Mask Tailoring |
2 | 60s 91c |
 Black Mageweave Boots Tailoring |
3 | 59s 89c |
 Parachute Cloak Engineering |
4 | 50s 69c |
 Simple Black Dress Tailoring |
3 | 50s 7c |
 Lavender Mageweave Shirt Tailoring |
2 | 48s 15c |
 Mageweave Reagent Bag Tailoring |
4 | 20s 68c |
 Orange Martial Shirt Tailoring |
2 | 18s 15c |
 Red Mageweave Bag Tailoring |
5 | 15s 28c |
 White Bandit Mask Tailoring |
1 | 10s 61c |
| Shadoweave Boots Tailoring |
6 | 5s 36c |
 Enchanted Mageweave Pouch Tailoring |
4 | 3s 11c |
 Dreamweave Vest Tailoring |
6 | 1s 3c |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.