FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

White Bandit Mask

Armor · Cloth · item 10008 · vendor 34s 92c

own demand model

Floor57scheapest 57s

Median59sby quantity

Listed4444 listings

Sold / day74avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	141	17%	100%	100%	100%	100%
floor to +10%	8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 63 sales out of 149 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 51s 30c	46%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 54s 15c	24%	98%	98%	98%	98%
+0% 57s	12%	82%	82%	82%	82%
+5% 59s 85c	6%	57%	57%	57%	57%
+10% 62s 70c	3%	34%	34%	34%	34%
+20% 68s 40c	1%	11%	11%	11%	11%
+30% 74s 10c	0%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+50% 85s 50c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -14.87 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.24. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at56s 65ceach · −1% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 5s 23c

Chance it sells85%~4.88h on the AH

Expected value52s 3c17s 11c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 27% of listed quantity across 7 postings (HHI 0.184, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 39% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 1× Bolt of Mageweave 25s 93c, 1× Bleach 22c, 1× Heavy Silken Thread 19s 45c

Materials 45s 60c → sells for 54s 15c: 8s 55c per craft