FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Red Mageweave Bag

Container · Bag · item 10051 · vendor 25s

own demand model

Floor1g 90scheapest 1g 88s

Median1g 91sby quantity

Listed241241 listings

Sold / day119avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	614	25%	52%	52%	52%	52%
floor to +10%	202	0%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+10% to +30%	50	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 85 sales out of 869 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 1g 71s	79%	98%	98%	98%	98%
−5% 1g 81s	41%	72%	72%	72%	72%
+0% 1g 90s	17%	36%	36%	36%	36%
+5% 2g	7%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+10% 2g 10s	3%	6%	6%	6%	6%
+20% 2g 29s	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+30% 2g 48s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 2g 86s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at1g 82seach · −4% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 3s 75c

Chance it sells66%~5.25h on the AH

Expected value1g 68s1g 43s more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 13% of listed quantity across 28 postings (HHI 0.071, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 15% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1
Sat 14 Nov 14:49	1g 85s	2g 40s	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 5× Bolt of Mageweave 26s 55c, 2× Red Dye 77c, 2× Heavy Silken Thread 19s 50c

Materials 1g 73s → sells for 1g 81s: 8s 13c per craft