Bolt of Silk Cloth
Trade Goods · Cloth · item 4305 · vendor 6s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 264 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| floor to +10% | 52 | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 25 sales out of 317 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 7s 47c | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| −5% 7s 88c | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| +0% 8s 30c | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| +5% 8s 72c | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +10% 9s 13c | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| +20% 9s 96c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +30% 10s 79c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +50% 12s 45c | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 20.00 ± 13.99: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 6.73. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 9% of listed quantity across 48 postings (HHI 0.042, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 10% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Silk ClothUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Cloudy Stormsewn Epaulets Tailoring | 5 | 4g 3s |
| Cloudy Stormsewn Cowl Tailoring | 7 | 3g 77s |
 Bright Yellow Shirt Tailoring |
1 | 1g 93s |
| Earthen Silk Gloves Tailoring | 5 | 1g 43s |
 Crimson Silk Robe Tailoring |
8 | 1g 21s |
 Dark Silk Shirt Tailoring |
2 | 69s 48c |
 Rich Purple Silk Shirt Tailoring |
4 | 46s 55c |
 Crimson Silk Cloak Tailoring |
5 | 44s 61c |
 Earthen Silk Belt Tailoring |
5 | 40s 78c |
 Robes of Arcana Tailoring |
4 | 37s 57c |
| Earthen Silk Hood Tailoring | 4 | 32s 4c |
| Earthen Silk Slippers Tailoring | 4 | 23s 73c |
| Spinning Wheel Tailoring | 5 | 17s 67c |
| Earthen Leggings Tailoring | 4 | 16s 80c |
| Silk Reagent Bag Tailoring | 3 | 9s 94c |
 Green Silk Pack Tailoring |
5 | 4s 28c |
 Black Silk Pack Tailoring |
6 | 2s 50c |
 Shadow Hood Tailoring |
4 | 2s 39c |
 Boots of the Enchanter Tailoring |
4 | 15c |
| Spidersilk Boots Tailoring |
2 | −1s 95c |
 White Swashbuckler's Shirt Tailoring |
3 | −2s 31c |
 Spider Silk Slippers Tailoring |
3 | −3s 24c |
| Black Swashbuckler's Shirt Tailoring |
5 | −3s 25c |
 Azure Silk Cloak Tailoring |
3 | −5s 15c |
 Guardian Cloak Leatherworking |
2 | −5s 64c |
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