FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Spinning Wheel

Consumable · Other · item 279943

no demand model yet

Floor64s 8ccheapest 64s 6c

Median66sby quantity

Listed22151 listings

Sold / day42avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	61	15%	28%	28%	28%	28%
floor to +10%	5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 8 sales out of 66 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Needs tracked sales to fit a model.

Best posting price

Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 10% of listed quantity across 29 postings (HHI 0.056, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 12% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 2× Simple Wood 39c, 5× Bolt of Silk Cloth 8s 44c, 3× Fine Thread 94c

Materials 45s 80c → sells for 60s 87c: 15s 7c per craft