FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Spider Silk Slippers

Armor · Cloth · item 4321 · vendor 11s 20c

own demand model

Floor33s 50ccheapest 33s 50c

Median34s 94cby quantity

Listed5151 listings

Sold / day71avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	100	32%	88%	88%	88%	88%
floor to +10%	14	90%	90%	90%	90%	90%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 66 sales out of 116 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 30s 15c	92%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 31s 82c	66%	98%	98%	98%	98%
+0% 33s 50c	38%	82%	82%	82%	82%
+5% 35s 18c	19%	54%	54%	54%	54%
+10% 36s 85c	10%	30%	30%	30%	30%
+20% 40s 20c	2%	9%	9%	9%	9%
+30% 43s 55c	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+50% 50s 25c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -16.11 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.22. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at33s 29ceach · −1% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1s 68c

Chance it sells85%~3.78h on the AH

Expected value30s 80c19s 60c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 22% of listed quantity across 13 postings (HHI 0.126, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 35% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 3× Bolt of Silk Cloth 8s 45c, 1× Spider's Silk 9s 53c, 2× Fine Thread 1s

Materials 36s 88c → sells for 31s 82c: −5s 6c per craft

Can craft it: Ezrealith