FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Black Silk Pack

Container · Bag · item 5765 · vendor 40s

own demand model

Floor69s 67ccheapest 68s

Median69s 98cby quantity

Listed270270 listings

Sold / day106avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	215	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
floor to +10%	51	26%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+10% to +30%	51	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 40 sales out of 317 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 62s 70c	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 66s 19c	95%	95%	95%	95%	95%
+0% 69s 67c	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%
+5% 73s 15c	33%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+10% 76s 64c	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%
+20% 83s 60c	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+30% 90s 57c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 1g 4s	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at66s 73ceach · −4% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 6s

Chance it sells92%~2.16h on the AH

Expected value62s 45c22s 45c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 14% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.069, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 14% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Tailoring: 6× Bolt of Silk Cloth 8s 44c, 1× Black Dye 10s 44c, 4× Fine Thread 94c

Materials 64s 84c → sells for 66s 18c: 1s 34c per craft