Steel Bar
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 3859 · vendor 60c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 124 | 24% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| floor to +10% | 25 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 30 sales out of 149 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 7s 16c | 88% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 7s 55c | 51% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| +0% 7s 95c | 22% | 62% | 62% | 62% | 62% |
| +5% 8s 35c | 9% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| +10% 8s 75c | 4% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| +20% 9s 54c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +30% 10s 34c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 11s 92c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 15.14: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 33 postings (HHI 0.083, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 21% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Mining: 1× 
Iron Bar 2s 70c, 1× 
Coal 4s 49c
Materials 7s 19c → sells for 7s 55c: 36c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Steel Weapon Chain Blacksmithing |
8 | 44s 11c |
 Hard Gold Gauntlet Blacksmithing |
2 | 41s 96c |
 Hard Gold Boots Blacksmithing |
2 | 40s 73c |
 Moonsteel Broadsword Blacksmithing |
8 | 31s 24c |
 Shadow Crescent Axe Blacksmithing |
10 | 26s 36c |
 Hard Gold Bracers Blacksmithing |
1 | 10s 14c |
 Steel Spear Blacksmithing |
10 | 3s 59c |
 Golden Scale Coif Blacksmithing |
8 | −8s 25c |
 Searing Golden Blade Blacksmithing |
10 | −8s 67c |
 Gyromatic Micro-Adjustor Engineering |
4 | −12s 80c |
 Golden Scale Shoulders Blacksmithing |
6 | −13s 91c |
| Glinting Steel Dagger Blacksmithing |
10 | −16s 12c |
 Steel Breastplate Blacksmithing |
16 | −17s 87c |
 Hard Gold Cuirass Blacksmithing |
3 | −40s 29c |
 Golden Scale Bracers Blacksmithing |
5 | −44s 18c |
 Polished Steel Boots Blacksmithing |
8 | −52s 73c |
| Golden Scale Boots Blacksmithing |
10 | −53s 78c |
 Frost Tiger Blade Blacksmithing |
8 | −59s 93c |
| Golden Scale Cuirass Blacksmithing |
12 | −67s 58c |
 Steel Plate Helm Blacksmithing |
14 | −83s 10c |
| Golden Scale Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
10 | – |
 Edge of Winter Blacksmithing |
10 | – |
| Golden Scale Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
10 | – |
 Golden Scale Boots Blacksmithing |
10 | – |
 Golden Scale Cuirass Blacksmithing |
12 | – |
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