Armor · Mail · item 7963 · vendor 56s 15c
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 18 | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% |
| over +30% | 11 | 0% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 23 sales out of 30 tracked listings.
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
The biggest single posting holds 50% of listed quantity across 2 postings (HHI 0.5, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 50% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1g 10s | 1g 49s | 1 |
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Blacksmithing: 16×
Steel Bar 7s 95c, 3×
Heavy Grinding Stone 10s 74c
Materials 1g 59s → sells for 1g 41s: −17s 87c per craft
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