Heavy Grinding Stone
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 3486 · vendor 1s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 65 | 47% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
| floor to +10% | 40 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 34 sales out of 105 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 9s 68c | 95% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| −5% 10s 21c | 65% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| +0% 10s 75c | 31% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +5% 11s 29c | 13% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +10% 11s 82c | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| +20% 12s 90c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 13s 98c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 16s 12c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 5.87: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 45% of listed quantity across 9 postings (HHI 0.287, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 45% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Blacksmithing: 3× 
Heavy Stone 3s 31c
Materials 9s 93c → sells for 10s 21c: 28c per craft
Can craft it: Didgood
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Cloudy Skyforged Pauldrons Blacksmithing |
3 | 37g 27s |
 Cloudy Skyforged Helm Blacksmithing |
5 | 36g 94s |
 Shining Mithril Breastplate Blacksmithing |
2 | 5g 79s |
 Shining Mithril Pants Blacksmithing |
2 | 2g 55s |
 Shining Mithril Boots Blacksmithing |
2 | 2g 40s |
 Shining Mithril Pauldrons Blacksmithing |
2 | 1g 16s |
 Iron Morningstar Blacksmithing |
2 | 1g 1s |
 Steel Weapon Chain Blacksmithing |
2 | 43s 15c |
 Hard Gold Boots Blacksmithing |
2 | 40s 28c |
 Hard Gold Gauntlet Blacksmithing |
2 | 39s 89c |
 Moonsteel Broadsword Blacksmithing |
2 | 36s 17c |
 Shadow Crescent Axe Blacksmithing |
3 | 24s 24c |
 Solid Iron Maul Blacksmithing |
1 | 22s 17c |
 Massive Iron Axe Blacksmithing |
2 | 21s 57c |
 Jade Serpentblade Blacksmithing |
2 | 14s 40c |
 Green Iron Hauberk Blacksmithing |
4 | 11s 6c |
 Hard Gold Bracers Blacksmithing |
2 | 8s 67c |
 Iron Fists Blacksmithing |
1 | 6s 79c |
 Hardened Iron Shortsword Blacksmithing |
1 | 4s 90c |
 Truesilver Rod Blacksmithing |
1 | 1s 30c |
 Steel Spear Blacksmithing |
4 | 90c |
 Green Iron Leggings Blacksmithing |
1 | −4s 50c |
 Green Iron Shoulders Blacksmithing |
1 | −6s 13c |
 Barbaric Iron Shoulders Blacksmithing |
2 | −8s 63c |
 Golden Scale Coif Blacksmithing |
2 | −10s 20c |
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