FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Steel Plate Helm

Armor · Plate · item 7922 · vendor 19s 44c

own demand model

Floor39scheapest 39s

Median39s 99cby quantity

Listed181181 listings

Sold / day26avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorover +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	129	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%
over +30%	8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 26 sales out of 137 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 35s 10c	79%	79%	79%	79%	79%
−5% 37s 5c	42%	42%	42%	42%	42%
+0% 39s	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+5% 40s 95c	7%	7%	7%	7%	7%
+10% 42s 90c	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%
+20% 46s 80c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+30% 50s 70c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 58s 50c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at35s 34ceach · −9% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 2s 91c

Chance it sells75%~3.97h on the AH

Expected value32s 66c13s 22c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 13 postings (HHI 0.134, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 29% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1
Sat 14 Nov 17:49	39s	10g	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Blacksmithing: 14× Steel Bar 8s 14c, 1× Solid Grinding Stone 8s 55c

Materials 1g 22s → sells for 37s 5c: −85s 46c per craft