FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Golden Scale Bracers

Armor · Mail · item 6040 · vendor 13s 15c

own demand model

Floor17s 95ccheapest 17s 95c

Median18sby quantity

Listed110110 listings

Sold / day328avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	167	98%	98%	98%	98%	98%
floor to +10%	142	0%	62%	62%	62%	62%
over +30%	7	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 206 sales out of 316 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 16s 16c	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 17s 5c	83%	98%	98%	98%	98%
+0% 17s 95c	47%	74%	74%	74%	74%
+5% 18s 85c	22%	40%	40%	40%	40%
+10% 19s 75c	9%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+20% 21s 54c	2%	4%	4%	4%	4%
+30% 23s 34c	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%
+50% 26s 92c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at17s 51ceach · −2% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1s 97c

Chance it sells89%~2.67h on the AH

Expected value16s 24c3s 9c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 44% of listed quantity across 10 postings (HHI 0.27, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 60% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1
Sat 14 Nov 15:49	17s 87c	39s	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Blacksmithing: 5× Steel Bar 7s 95c, 2× Heavy Grinding Stone 10s 74c

Materials 61s 23c → sells for 17s 5c: −44s 18c per craft