Briarthorn
Trade Goods · Herb · item 2450 · vendor 25c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 136 | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% | 81% |
| floor to +10% | 184 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 129 sales out of 326 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 7c | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| −5% 1s 13c | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| +0% 1s 19c | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| +5% 1s 25c | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| +10% 1s 31c | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +20% 1s 43c | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| +30% 1s 55c | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +50% 1s 78c | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -5.41 ± 2.43: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.60. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 46 postings (HHI 0.098, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 32% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 1s 24c | 16s 20c | 17 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Lesser Healing Potion First Aid |
1 | −1s 14c |
 Rage Potion Alchemy |
1 | −1s 46c |
 Lesser Frenzy Potion Alchemy |
1 | −1s 91c |
 Elixir of Wisdom Alchemy |
2 | −2s 53c |
 Swiftness Potion Alchemy |
1 | −2s 67c |
 Lesser Troll's Blood Elixir Alchemy |
2 | −3s 2c |
 Lesser Discolored Healing Potion Alchemy |
1 | −3s 40c |
 Frenzy Potion Alchemy |
2 | −3s 93c |
Alerts for this item
Sign in to set alerts.