FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Lesser Frenzy Potion

Consumable · Potions · item 250939 · vendor 1c

house-wide demand model

Floor3s 73ccheapest 3s 73c

Median3s 73cby quantity

Listed1113 listings

Sold / day104avg of last 2 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorover +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	22	43%	100%	100%	100%	100%
over +30%	5	0%	25%	25%	25%	25%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 19 sales out of 28 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 3s 36c	20%	20%	20%	20%	20%
−5% 3s 54c	19%	19%	19%	19%	19%
+0% 3s 73c	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+5% 3s 92c	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+10% 4s 10c	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%
+20% 4s 48c	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+30% 4s 85c	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+50% 5s 60c	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (pooled across the house: this item has fewer than 20 tracked sales). Price effect β = -0.63 ± 0.08: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.94. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at9s 32ceach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells11%~10.79h on the AH

Expected value3s 71c3s 70c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 79% of listed quantity across 3 postings (HHI 0.653, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 85% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Alchemy: 1× Briarthorn 98c, 2× Earthroot 3s 25c, 1× Empty Vial 6c

Materials 7s 54c → sells for 3s 54c: −4s per craft