Lesser Troll's Blood Elixir
Consumable · Elixirs · item 3388 · vendor 40c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 79 | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% | 69% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 35 sales out of 83 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 80c | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| −5% 1s 90c | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| +0% 2s | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| +5% 2s 10c | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| +10% 2s 20c | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| +20% 2s 40c | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +30% 2s 60c | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| +50% 3s | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.56 ± 2.43: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.86. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 34% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.166, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 100% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 80c | 4s 79c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 80c | 4s 79c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 80c | 4s 79c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 80c | 4s 79c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 2s 80c | 4s 79c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 2× 
Bruiseweed 1s 2c, 2× 
Briarthorn 1s 19c, 1× 
Leaded Vial 50c
Materials 4s 92c → sells for 1s 90c: −3s 2c per craft
Can craft it: Mister
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