FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Rage Potion

Consumable · Potions · item 5631 · vendor 30c

own demand model

Floor52ccheapest 52c

Median69cby quantity

Listed81354 listings

Sold / day426avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	68	18%	44%	44%	44%	44%
floor to +10%	12	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
over +30%	8	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 28 sales out of 88 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 47c	22%	51%	51%	51%	51%
−5% 49c	19%	44%	44%	44%	44%
+0% 52c	16%	38%	38%	38%	38%
+5% 55c	14%	33%	33%	33%	33%
+10% 57c	12%	29%	29%	29%	29%
+20% 62c	8%	22%	22%	22%	22%
+30% 68c	6%	17%	17%	17%	17%
+50% 78c	4%	10%	10%	10%	10%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.64 ± 1.65: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.71. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at50ceach · −4% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 4c

Chance it sells41%~7.82h on the AH

Expected value43c13c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 21% of listed quantity across 16 postings (HHI 0.138, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 74% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	50c	69c	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Alchemy: 1× Sharp Claw 63c, 1× Briarthorn 1s 12c, 1× Empty Vial 6c

Materials 1s 81c → sells for 49c: −1s 32c per craft

Can craft it: Mister