Refreshing Spring Water
Consumable · Food & Drink · item 159 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 32 | 21% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 6 sales out of 33 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 39% of listed quantity across 13 postings (HHI 0.24, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 50% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Iron Oven Cooking | 5 | 70s 6c |
 Lobster Stew Cooking |
1 | 8s 41c |
 Goldthorn Tea Cooking |
1 | 4s 84c |
 Heavy Kodo Stew Cooking |
1 | 2s 38c |
| Jungle Stew Cooking |
1 | 2s |
| Nightfin Soup Cooking |
1 | 68c |
| First Aid Kit First Aid | 1 | 64c |
| Venomous Smoothie Cooking | 1 | 45c |
 Thistle Tea Cooking |
1 | −43c |
 Large Seaforium Charge Engineering |
1 | −93c |
 Boiled Clams Cooking |
1 | −1s 40c |
| Small Seaforium Charge Engineering |
1 | −6s 90c |
 Powerful Seaforium Charge Engineering |
1 | – |
| Peace Tea Cooking | 1 | – |
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