FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Nightfin Soup

Consumable · Food & Drink · item 13931 · vendor 12c

own demand model

Floor5scheapest 5s

Median5sby quantity

Listed56612 listings

Sold / day1,309avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	62	40%	92%	92%	92%	92%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 37 sales out of 69 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 4s 50c	45%	92%	92%	92%	92%
−5% 4s 75c	48%	94%	94%	94%	94%
+0% 5s	52%	95%	95%	95%	95%
+5% 5s 25c	55%	96%	96%	96%	96%
+10% 5s 50c	58%	97%	97%	97%	97%
+20% 6s	64%	98%	98%	98%	98%
+30% 6s 50c	69%	99%	99%	99%	99%
+50% 7s 50c	78%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 1.81 ± 1.50: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.19. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at12s 50ceach · +150% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1c

Chance it sells100%~1.27h on the AH

Expected value11s 86c11s 74c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 47% of listed quantity across 6 postings (HHI 0.334, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 52% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.