Vision Dust
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 11137 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 111 | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| floor to +10% | 49 | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +10% to +30% | 11 | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 80 sales out of 173 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 9s 14c | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 52% |
| −5% 9s 64c | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| +0% 10s 15c | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| +5% 10s 66c | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| +10% 11s 16c | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| +20% 12s 18c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +30% 13s 20c | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| +50% 15s 22c | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -4.16 ± 2.48: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.67. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 24 postings (HHI 0.098, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 50% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Dreambough Wand Enchanting |
1 | 2g 38s |
 Enchanted Mageweave Pouch Tailoring |
4 | 49s 20c |
 Arcane Salvager Enchanting |
2 | 11s 28c |
 Mystic Thick Armor Kit Leatherworking |
2 | 9s 33c |
| Forceful Thick Armor Kit Leatherworking |
2 | 6s 13c |
 Lesser Wizard Oil Enchanting |
1 | −8s 51c |
 Greater Mystic Wand Enchanting |
1 | −41s 40c |
| Greater Mystic Wand Enchanting |
1 | −58s 54c |
 Runed Truesilver Rod Enchanting |
1 | – |
 Gneuro-Linked Arcano-Filament Monocle Tailoring |
10 | – |
 Sigil of Innovation Enchanting |
5 | – |
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