FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.4 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Greater Mystic Wand

Weapon · Wand · item 217287 · vendor 6s

own demand model

Floor28scheapest 28s

Median28sby quantity

Listed8282 listings

Sold / day42avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor+10% to +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	132	17%	32%	32%	32%	32%
+10% to +30%	6	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 42 sales out of 139 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 25s 20c	15%	30%	30%	30%	30%
−5% 26s 60c	14%	28%	28%	28%	28%
+0% 28s	13%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+5% 29s 40c	12%	24%	24%	24%	24%
+10% 30s 80c	11%	23%	23%	23%	23%
+20% 33s 60c	10%	20%	20%	20%	20%
+30% 36s 40c	9%	18%	18%	18%	18%
+50% 42s	7%	14%	14%	14%	14%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -1.57 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.86. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at56s 9ceach · +100% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 90c

Chance it sells9%~11.11h on the AH

Expected value25s 39c19s 39c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 51% of listed quantity across 9 postings (HHI 0.311, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 81% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Possible flips, last 7 days

When	Bought at	Relisted at	Qty
Sat 14 Nov 18:49	28s	50s	1

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Enchanting: 1× Star Wood 44s 99c, 1× Lesser Mystic Essence 8s 76c, 1× Vision Dust 9s 45c

Materials 63s 20c → sells for 26s 60c: −36s 60c per craft

Enchanting: 1× Star Wood 44s 99c, 1× Greater Mystic Essence 23s 98c, 1× Vision Dust 9s 45c

Materials 78s 42c → sells for 26s 60c: −51s 82c per craft