Lesser Mystic Essence
Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 11134 · vendor 1c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 126 | 26% | 57% | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| floor to +10% | 40 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 41 sales out of 169 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 7s 90c | 84% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 8s 34c | 47% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| +0% 8s 78c | 20% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| +5% 9s 22c | 8% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| +10% 9s 66c | 3% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| +20% 10s 54c | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| +30% 11s 41c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 13s 17c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 6.23: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 25 postings (HHI 0.119, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 30% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Cloudy Stormsewn Epaulets Tailoring |
1 | 4g 2s |
 Cloudy Stormsewn Cowl Tailoring |
2 | 3g 76s |
 Lesser Mystic Wand Enchanting |
1 | −35s 92c |
 Greater Mystic Wand Enchanting |
1 | −41s 17c |
| Azure Stormsewn Cowl Tailoring |
2 | – |
| Azure Stormsewn Epaulets Tailoring |
1 | – |
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