FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.3 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Lesser Wizard Oil

Trade Goods · Enchanting · item 20746 · vendor 10s

own demand model

Floor11s 11ccheapest 11s 11c

Median11s 20cby quantity

Listed175175 listings

Sold / day153avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floorfloor to +10%over +30%

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	350	14%	17%	17%	17%	17%
floor to +10%	48	98%	98%	98%	98%	98%
over +30%	25	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 86 sales out of 423 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 10s	30%	34%	34%	34%	34%
−5% 10s 55c	26%	30%	30%	30%	30%
+0% 11s 11c	23%	26%	26%	26%	26%
+5% 11s 67c	20%	23%	23%	23%	23%
+10% 12s 22c	18%	20%	20%	20%	20%
+20% 13s 33c	14%	16%	16%	16%	16%
+30% 14s 44c	11%	13%	13%	13%	13%
+50% 16s 66c	7%	8%	8%	8%	8%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.09 ± nan: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.74. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at12s 33ceach · +11% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 1s 50c

Chance it sells20%~9.9h on the AH

Expected value8s 63c−1s 37c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 49% of listed quantity across 7 postings (HHI 0.298, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 56% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Enchanting: 1× Vision Dust 10s 15c, 2× Stranglethorn Seed 4s 21c, 1× Leaded Vial 49c

Materials 19s 6c → sells for 10s 55c: −8s 51c per craft