FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Mystic Thick Armor Kit

Consumable · Permanent · item 252462

own demand model

Floor50s 45ccheapest 50s 45c

Median50s 51cby quantity

Listed34030 listings

Sold / day331avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	99	17%	59%	59%	59%	59%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 33 sales out of 100 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Price vs floor	≤ 2h	≤ 6h	≤ 12h	≤ 24h	≤ 48h
−10% 45s 40c	73%	100%	100%	100%	100%
−5% 47s 93c	36%	87%	87%	87%	87%
+0% 50s 45c	15%	51%	51%	51%	51%
+5% 52s 97c	6%	24%	24%	24%	24%
+10% 55s 50c	2%	10%	10%	10%	10%
+20% 60s 54c	0%	2%	2%	2%	2%
+30% 65s 58c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
+50% 75s 68c	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 18.57: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.

Best posting price

Post at49s 22ceach · −2% vs floor

Duration12hdeposit 0c

Chance it sells69%~5.11h on the AH

Expected value45s 43c45s 43c more than vendoring

Expected gain vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Chance to sell vs price

12h listing24h listing48h listing

Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you. No vendor price known for this item, so the deposit is 0.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 35% of listed quantity across 11 postings (HHI 0.187, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 35% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Leatherworking: 1× Thick Armor Kit 12s 45c, 2× Vision Dust 9s 46c, 2× Mana Potion 2s 19c

Materials 35s 75c → sells for 47s 92c: 12s 17c per craft