Mana Potion
Consumable · Potions · item 3827 · vendor 1s 20c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 227 | 24% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| floor to +10% | 11 | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 73% |
| +10% to +30% | 49 | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 86 sales out of 288 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 1s 84c | 57% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| −5% 1s 95c | 34% | 55% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| +0% 2s 5c | 19% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| +5% 2s 15c | 10% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +10% 2s 26c | 6% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +20% 2s 46c | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| +30% 2s 66c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +50% 3s 8c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -13.06 ± 3.30: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.29. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 9% of listed quantity across 45 postings (HHI 0.049, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 26% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 1× 
Stranglekelp 3s 15c, 1× 
Kingsblood 1s 9c, 1× 
Leaded Vial 49c
Materials 4s 73c → sells for 1s 94c: −2s 79c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Crimson Silk Robe Tailoring |
2 | 1g 4s |
 Mystic Thick Armor Kit Leatherworking |
2 | 10s 61c |
 Long Silken Cloak Tailoring |
1 | −16s 29c |
 Crimson Silk Robe Tailoring |
2 | – |
 Long Silken Cloak Tailoring |
1 | – |
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