Blindweed
Trade Goods · Herb · item 8839 · vendor 3s 75c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 114 | 26% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| floor to +10% | 34 | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 73 sales out of 149 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 8s 74c | 47% | 99% | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| −5% 9s 22c | 29% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| +0% 9s 71c | 18% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| +5% 10s 20c | 10% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| +10% 10s 68c | 6% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| +20% 11s 65c | 2% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| +30% 12s 62c | 1% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| +50% 14s 56c | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -11.36 ± 5.19: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.34. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 43% of listed quantity across 12 postings (HHI 0.309, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 44% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Major Frenzy Potion Alchemy |
2 | 2g 6s |
 Elixir of the Grizzly Alchemy |
1 | 97s 45c |
 Greater Mageblood Elixir Alchemy |
3 | 1s 91c |
 Limited Invulnerability Potion Alchemy |
2 | 98c |
 Arcane Elixir Alchemy |
1 | −3s 31c |
 Elixir of Greater Intellect Alchemy |
1 | −3s 85c |
 Gift of Arthas Alchemy |
1 | −5s 33c |
 Superior Frenzy Potion Alchemy |
3 | −8s 78c |
 Superior Mana Potion Alchemy |
2 | −10s 63c |
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