Limited Invulnerability Potion
Consumable · Potions · item 3387 · vendor 30c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 15 | 36% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 58% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 6 sales out of 17 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
Needs tracked sales to fit a model.
Best posting price
Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 24% of listed quantity across 12 postings (HHI 0.161, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 41% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 2× 
Blindweed 8s 97c, 1× 
Ghost Mushroom 36s 30c, 1× 
Crystal Vial 6s 70c
Materials 60s 94c → sells for 62s: 1s 6c per craft
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