FOREVERAH

Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.2 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Crystal Vial

Trade Goods · Other · item 8925 · vendor 1s 25c

no demand model yet

Floor5scheapest 4s 99c

Median6s 70cby quantity

Listed80445 listings

Sold / day72avg of last 1 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor

Posted at	Seen	2h	6h	12h	24h	48h
at or below floor	44	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 3 sales out of 45 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Needs tracked sales to fit a model.

Best posting price

Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 18% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.106, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 95% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Used to make

Recipe	Needs	Profit
Flask of Petrification Alchemy	1	44g 32s
Flask of the Titans Alchemy	1	27g 39s
Flask of Supreme Power Alchemy	1	23g 45s
Seed Hybridizer Herbalism	1	8g 62s
Alchemy Laboratory Alchemy	1	7g 59s
Greater Arcane Elixir Alchemy	1	3g 91s
Elixir of Brute Force Alchemy	1	3g 42s
Caustic Smog Potion Alchemy	1	2g 43s
Potion of Elemental Purging Alchemy	1	2g 32s
Elixir of Ferocity Alchemy	1	2g 14s
Elixir of the Whale Alchemy	1	1g 93s
Elixir of Nature Power Alchemy	1	1g 37s
Mighty Rage Potion Alchemy	1	1g 25s
Elixir of the Grizzly Alchemy	1	97s 45c
Elixir of the Sages Alchemy	1	88s 99c
Greater Fire Protection Potion Alchemy	1	84s 28c
Elixir of the Phalanx Alchemy	1	78s 23c
Greater Stoneshield Potion Alchemy	1	61s 42c
Elixir of Wicked Regeneration Alchemy	1	53s 17c
Superior Mender's Potion Alchemy	1	35s 89c
Elixir of Greater Fortitude Alchemy	1	27s 4c
Dragonfire Potion Alchemy	1	26s 80c
Major Discolored Healing Potion Alchemy	1	23s 31c
Superior Discolored Healing Potion Alchemy	1	14s 98c
Dreamless Sleep Potion Alchemy	1	11s 63c