FOREVERAH
Collecting since Sat 14 Nov 14:19: 0.5 of the ~14 days the models need to settle. Price history is real already; demand, pricing and forecasts firm up as data comes in.

Caustic Smog Potion

Consumable · Potions · item 250951 · vendor 1c

no demand model yet
Floor3g 49scheapest 3g 49s
Median3g 49sby quantity
Listed153 listings
Sold / day–avg of last 0 days with sales

Price

Floor (10th pct)MedianCheapest

Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.

ListedSold (est.)

How fast it sells

at or below floor
Posted atSeen2h6h12h24h48h
at or below floor100%0%0%0%0%

Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 0 sales out of 10 tracked listings.

Chance to sell, by price

Needs tracked sales to fit a model.

Best posting price

Needs a demand model (tracked sales) first.

Market structure

The biggest single posting holds 73% of listed quantity across 2 postings (HHI 0.609, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 73% of the cheap supply.

A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.

Recipe links

No material/crafted links for this item yet.

Crafting it

Alchemy: 2× Ghost Mushroom 33s 30c, 2× Grave Moss 4s 50c, 1× Crystal Vial 6s

Materials 81s 60c → sells for 3g 32s: 2g 50s per craft

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