Superior Mana Potion
Consumable · Potions · item 13443 · vendor 4s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 127 | 45% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| floor to +10% | 60 | 32% | 38% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| +10% to +30% | 34 | 12% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 88 sales out of 223 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 31s 95c | 41% | 70% | 71% | 71% | 71% |
| −5% 33s 72c | 38% | 66% | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| +0% 35s 50c | 35% | 62% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| +5% 37s 28c | 32% | 58% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| +10% 39s 5c | 30% | 54% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| +20% 42s 60c | 25% | 48% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| +30% 46s 15c | 22% | 42% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| +50% 53s 25c | 17% | 34% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -2.09 ± 1.18: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.82. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 39% of listed quantity across 14 postings (HHI 0.232, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 39% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 3 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 29s | 36s 99c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Alchemy: 2× 
Sungrass 17s 83c, 2× 
Blindweed 9s 10c, 1× 
Crystal Vial 5s 99c
Materials 59s 85c → sells for 33s 72c: −26s 13c per craft
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