Sungrass
Trade Goods · Herb · item 8838 · vendor 60c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 99 | 35% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| floor to +10% | 11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 39 sales out of 114 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 9s 57c | 91% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| −5% 10s 10c | 56% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% |
| +0% 10s 63c | 25% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| +5% 11s 16c | 10% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| +10% 11s 69c | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +20% 12s 76c | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| +30% 13s 82c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| +50% 15s 94c | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -20.00 ± 39.00: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.15. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 19% of listed quantity across 23 postings (HHI 0.109, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 28% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Major Mender's Potion Alchemy |
1 | 1g 44s |
 Elixir of Nature Power Alchemy |
2 | 1g 37s |
 Elixir of the Phalanx Alchemy |
4 | 78s 23c |
 Superior Mender's Potion Alchemy |
2 | 35s 89c |
 Elixir of Greater Fortitude Alchemy |
4 | 27s 4c |
 Sunny Tea Cooking |
2 | 17s 54c |
 Superior Discolored Healing Potion Alchemy |
1 | 14s 98c |
 Elixir of Greater Strength Alchemy |
1 | 5s 18c |
 Elixir of Greater Agility Alchemy |
1 | 1s 66c |
 Superior Healing Potion First Aid |
1 | −7s 74c |
 Elixir of Greater Defense Alchemy |
1 | −10s 56c |
 Superior Mana Potion Alchemy |
2 | −10s 63c |
 Invisibility Potion Alchemy |
1 | – |
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