Truesilver Bar
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 6037 · vendor 12s 50c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 144 | 51% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| floor to +10% | 22 | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 122 sales out of 169 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 13s 10c | 36% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| −5% 13s 82c | 44% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% |
| +0% 14s 55c | 52% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| +5% 15s 28c | 61% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 96% |
| +10% 16s 1c | 69% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +20% 17s 46c | 83% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +30% 18s 92c | 92% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +50% 21s 82c | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 4.75 ± 5.77: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.57. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 44% of listed quantity across 11 postings (HHI 0.237, moderately concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 27% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 92c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 88c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 88c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 88c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 80c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 80c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 79c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 78c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 77c | 17s 49c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 13s 77c | 17s 49c | 1 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Mining: 1× 
Truesilver Ore 12s 22c
Materials 12s 22c → sells for 13s 82c: 1s 60c per craft
Alchemy: 1× 
Mithril Bar 10s 38c
Materials 10s 38c → sells for 13s 82c: 3s 44c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Phantom Blade Blacksmithing |
8 | 18g 76s |
 The Shatterer Blacksmithing |
6 | 14g 2s |
 Deepdive Helmet Engineering |
1 | 13g 62s |
 Blight Blacksmithing |
10 | 10g 59s |
 Truesilver Breastplate Blacksmithing |
24 | 9g 19s |
 EZ-Thro Tru-Trigger Engineering |
1 | 7g 91s |
 Molten Foundry Mining |
1 | 7g 29s |
 Shining Mithril Breastplate Blacksmithing |
9 | 5g 79s |
 Truesilver Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
8 | 3g 29s |
 Ornate Mithril Breastplate Blacksmithing |
6 | 2g 60s |
 Truesilver Transformer Engineering |
2 | 2g 56s |
 Shining Mithril Pants Blacksmithing |
9 | 2g 55s |
 Shining Mithril Boots Blacksmithing |
3 | 2g 40s |
 Ebon Shiv Blacksmithing |
6 | 2g 17s |
 Ornate Mithril Shoulders Blacksmithing |
1 | 2g 2s |
| Gnomish Mind Control Cap Engineering |
4 | 1g 97s |
 Ornate Mithril Helm Blacksmithing |
2 | 1g 27s |
 Ornate Mithril Gloves Blacksmithing |
1 | 1g 25s |
 Shining Mithril Pauldrons Blacksmithing |
3 | 1g 16s |
 Ornate Mithril Pants Blacksmithing |
1 | 1g 13s |
 Dreamweave Circlet Tailoring |
1 | 78s 3c |
 Inlaid Mithril Cylinder Blacksmithing |
1 | 42s 99c |
 Ornate Mithril Boots Blacksmithing |
2 | 24s 72c |
 Gnomish Harm Prevention Belt Engineering |
2 | 11s 35c |
 Wicked Mithril Blade Blacksmithing |
4 | 4s 15c |
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