Thick Leather
Trade Goods · Leather · item 4304 · vendor 3s
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 253 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| floor to +10% | 74 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| +10% to +30% | 73 | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
| over +30% | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 29 sales out of 405 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 5s 30c | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| −5% 5s 60c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +0% 5s 89c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +5% 6s 18c | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| +10% 6s 48c | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| +20% 7s 7c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +30% 7s 66c | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +50% 8s 84c | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = 0.56 ± 0.64: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 1.05. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 15% of listed quantity across 48 postings (HHI 0.071, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 19% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 6s 21c | 15s 15c | 55 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 6s 21c | 15s 15c | 55 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 6s 20c | 15s 15c | 55 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 6s 21c | 7s 97c | 6 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Crafting it
Leatherworking: 6× 
Heavy Leather 1s 97c
Materials 11s 82c → sells for 5s 59c: −6s 23c per craft
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Phantom Blade Blacksmithing |
2 | 18g 76s |
 The Shatterer Blacksmithing |
4 | 14g 2s |
 Gauntlets of the Sea Leatherworking |
20 | 10g 94s |
 Blight Blacksmithing |
6 | 10g 59s |
 Feathered Breastplate Leatherworking |
40 | 3g 2s |
 Helm of Fire Leatherworking |
40 | 2g 91s |
 Shining Mithril Boots Blacksmithing |
4 | 2g 40s |
 Ebon Shiv Blacksmithing |
2 | 2g 17s |
 Ornate Mithril Shoulders Blacksmithing |
6 | 2g 2s |
 Dragonscale Gauntlets Leatherworking |
24 | 1g 74s |
 Tough Scorpid Breastplate Leatherworking |
12 | 1g 17s |
 Shining Mithril Pauldrons Blacksmithing |
2 | 1g 16s |
 Wolfshead Helm Leatherworking |
18 | 96s 10c |
 Wild Leather Shoulders Leatherworking |
10 | 56s 38c |
 Turtle Scale Gloves Leatherworking |
6 | 47s 43c |
 Green Lens Engineering |
8 | 45s 96c |
 Wild Leather Helmet Leatherworking |
10 | 38s 31c |
 Wild Leather Vest Leatherworking |
12 | 32s 23c |
 Catseye Ultra Goggles Engineering |
4 | 28s 29c |
 Black Mageweave Boots Tailoring |
2 | 25s 5c |
 Ornate Mithril Boots Blacksmithing |
4 | 24s 72c |
 Dragonscale Breastplate Leatherworking |
40 | 23s 45c |
 Big Voodoo Robe Leatherworking |
10 | 20s 90c |
 Big Black Mace Blacksmithing |
2 | 17s 85c |
 Nightscape Shoulders Leatherworking |
8 | 13s 39c |
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