Coarse Grinding Stone
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 3478 · vendor 10c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 40 | 53% | 66% | 66% | 66% | 66% |
| floor to +10% | 39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 25 sales out of 79 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 94c | 48% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| −5% 1s | 35% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| +0% 1s 5c | 26% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| +5% 1s 10c | 19% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| +10% 1s 16c | 14% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| +20% 1s 26c | 8% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| +30% 1s 36c | 4% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| +50% 1s 58c | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -7.33 ± 6.49: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.50. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 25% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.142, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 38% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Coarse StoneUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Sterling Silver Gauntlet Blacksmithing | 2 | 22s 80c |
 Heavy Bronze Mace Blacksmithing |
2 | 14s 68c |
 Iridescent Hammer Blacksmithing |
2 | 14s 14c |
 Deadly Bronze Poniard Blacksmithing |
2 | 12s 67c |
| Pearl-handled Dagger Blacksmithing |
2 | 4s 83c |
| Anvil Blacksmithing | 2 | 1s 32c |
 Green Iron Boots Blacksmithing |
2 | −1s 19c |
 Green Iron Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
2 | −1s 27c |
 Golden Rod Blacksmithing |
2 | −3s 22c |
 Silvered Bronze Leggings Blacksmithing |
2 | −3s 46c |
 Silvered Bronze Breastplate Blacksmithing |
2 | −4s 47c |
 Silvered Bronze Shoulders Blacksmithing |
2 | −5s 62c |
 Rough Bronze Shoulders Blacksmithing |
1 | −6s 64c |
 Patterned Bronze Bracers Blacksmithing |
2 | −6s 78c |
| Silvered Bronze Boots Blacksmithing |
2 | −7s 34c |
| Sterling Silver Boots Blacksmithing | 2 | −9s 58c |
 Iron Shield Spike Blacksmithing |
4 | −10s 15c |
| Silvered Bronze Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
2 | −11s 25c |
 Iron Counterweight Blacksmithing |
2 | −15s 21c |
 Mighty Iron Hammer Blacksmithing |
2 | −32s 57c |
| Ironforge Gauntlets Blacksmithing |
4 | – |
| Sterling Silver Leggings Blacksmithing | 3 | – |
| Sterling Silver Shoulders Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
| Sterling Silver Breastplate Blacksmithing | 3 | – |
| Veteran's Chain Leggings Blacksmithing | 2 | – |
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