Coarse Stone
Trade Goods · Metal & Stone · item 2836 · vendor 15c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 152 | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| +10% to +30% | 22 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| over +30% | 9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 79 sales out of 185 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 32c | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 63% |
| −5% 34c | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| +0% 36c | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| +5% 38c | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| +10% 40c | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| +20% 43c | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| +30% 47c | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| +50% 54c | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -3.48 ± 1.01: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.72. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 12% of listed quantity across 53 postings (HHI 0.078, competitive). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 62% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 38c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 35c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 32c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 32c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 32c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 32c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 32c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 31c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 27c | 65c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 15:49 | 38c | 50c | 3 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Used to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Coarse Sharpening Stone Blacksmithing |
1 | 34c |
 Coarse Grinding Stone Blacksmithing |
2 | 27c |
 Coarse Blasting Powder Engineering |
1 | 1c |
 Coarse Weightstone Blacksmithing |
1 | −3c |
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