Coarse Blasting Powder
Trade Goods · Parts · item 4364 · vendor 12c
Price
Log scale. The gold band is the forecast (Holt-Winters with a daily cycle on the log floor), dark = 80%, light = 95%. Purple marks are sudden moves.
How fast it sells
| Posted at | Seen | 2h | 6h | 12h | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at or below floor | 121 | 58% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| +10% to +30% | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Kaplan-Meier: share of listings sold within each time, by price vs the floor the seller saw when posting. Cancelled, expired and still-listed auctions count as "not sold yet", not as failures. 111 sales out of 135 tracked listings.
Chance to sell, by price
| Price vs floor | ≤ 2h | ≤ 6h | ≤ 12h | ≤ 24h | ≤ 48h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −10% 39c | 85% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| −5% 41c | 65% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| +0% 43c | 46% | 98% | 98% | 98% | 98% |
| +5% 45c | 30% | 92% | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| +10% 47c | 20% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 78% |
| +20% 52c | 8% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| +30% 56c | 4% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| +50% 64c | 1% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Cox proportional-hazards model on price vs floor and stack size (fitted on this item). Price effect β = -10.71 ± 1.62: each +10% on price multiplies the sell rate by 0.36. For 1 unit.
Best posting price
Expected gain vs price
Chance to sell vs price
Expected value = P(sells) × price after the 5% cut + P(doesn't) × (the goods back, valued at 90% of floor, minus the lost deposit) − holding cost while listed. "Gain" is that minus what a vendor pays for the stack. Forever's deposit rate isn't documented, so set it to what the AH window shows you.
Market structure
The biggest single posting holds 46% of listed quantity across 15 postings (HHI 0.312, concentrated). Near the floor right now, one posting holds 53% of the cheap supply.
A "posting" is listings of one item that showed up in the same snapshot at the same price: one seller's batch. The API has no seller names.
Possible flips, last 7 days
| When | Bought at | Relisted at | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 30c | 43c | 1 |
| Sat 14 Nov 17:49 | 30c | 43c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 16:49 | 39c | 1s | 5 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 39c | 1s 39c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 38c | 1s 39c | 2 |
| Sat 14 Nov 14:49 | 35c | 1s | 5 |
Recipe links
No material/crafted links for this item yet.
Coarse StoneUsed to make
| Recipe | Needs | Profit |
|---|---|---|
 Aquadynamic Fish Attractor Engineering |
1 | 2s 91c |
 Crafted Heavy Shot Engineering |
1 | −53c |
 Coarse Dynamite Engineering |
3 | −80c |
 EZ-Thro Copper Bomb XL Engineering |
4 | −4s 83c |
 Small Bronze Bomb Engineering |
4 | −5s 23c |
| EZ-Thro Dynamite Engineering |
3 | −5s 81c |
| Large Copper Bomb Engineering |
4 | −6s 30c |
 Small Seaforium Charge Engineering |
2 | −6s 47c |
| SAF-T Bronze Bomb Engineering |
4 | −21s 78c |
 Small Blue Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Small Green Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Small Red Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Small Purple Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Small White Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
 Small Yellow Rocket Engineering |
1 | – |
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